Bengal elections : Can be a close election , No one should remain complacent
Earlier we have taken a small note on both West Bengal and Tamilnadu. After our visit to Chennai and meeting many local friends we got the feedback that DMK will be in the majority position and despite all positive vibes coming for BJP and her alliance partner AIADMK with Rajnikant and others in background it will be too early to call a winning proposition for them. At times we feel that we can play a good role in Tamilnadu with such a big network of our friendly contacts. We will write more on it separately but will take the W Bengal issue where things are quite differently this time. We have also said earlier the need for sending as many volunteers to these states.
Coming to Bengal, anyone who has watched and observed the Chanakya man and HM Hon’ble Amit Shah’s visit to the state and rallies cannot but remain impressed. It looked more like the state of Gujarat and MP rather than West Bengal with so big crowds coming to greet and join the bjp band in the state. After the massive crowd pour we thought for a minute that West bengal was always a BJP/saffron bastion and it is really unfortunate that it was just a thought and not a reality.
But wait, Things may change henceforth and Bengal can become one of the best states for the party. Bengalis are highly passionate and nationalist is not more than any other state ( in the right sense and not to offend anyone) . The Indian history is full of the contribution of Bangalis, their literature, cultural impact and revolt against the Britishers and others. If Maharashtra has given the war strategies to the country , If Rajasthan has given the resolve against the Mughals then Bengal has certainly given the call of revolt against the invaders. Who can forget Subashchandra Bose and his invaluable hand in India’s freedom struggle. There are many others like Bose and the vidroh against the invaders is distinctively observed in all of them.
This vidroh was wrongly exploited and manipulated first by the communist ( Jyoti Basu et al) and now by mamata Banarjee. They all knew this inherent Bengali DNA very clear than others based in north, central and southern India as they themselves had those DNA strains in them and hence were in a better pole position to read the mind of voters and citizens of this amazing state. No doubt then that the left ruled the state for decades with the tag of longest CM while Mamata banarjee is now trying to do the same.
The BJP has to win and sustain this momentum and will have to understand this DNA strain correctly. The Bengalis are different from the rest of the country with their emotional and intelligence quotient. On the one hand they are so culturally and intellectually gifted and on the other they are so emotionally vulnerable that they made the left rule them for decades without a single protest while the state went from bad to worse economically.
Coming to the present state of affairs we have the following inputs from our friends to share.
This will be a tricky election. Presently, both parties are neck to neck. While BJP has gained huge momentum, the TMC has the minority block of votes, which is around 30% across the state.South Bengal and Jangal Mahal areas of Bengal will be the decider as 2/3rd of the seats belong here.Important points will be how BJP can manage the following:-
1) Campaigning momentum in the next 5 months. Whether it can reach various groups of voters through its initiatives.
2) Whether it can further break into TMCs political cadre. At the same time avoid tainted leaders.
3) If MIM can cut into TMCs minority block. With minorities by their side, TMC will always have a guaranteed 40% vote share.
4. Infighting and control over BJP state leaders so that backlash is avoided.
These are the important factors that the party has to take care of. The party is getting good support but in the end any victory is the sum total of all small and sundry factors taken together.
We are sure of the political acumen of Both Narendra Modi as well as Amit Shah. Kailash Vijayvargiya has been quite an experienced hand in running tough elections.
The only thing the party has to do is to organise the whole puzzle in a neat and tidy way and let the result come out. The party cannot afford to remain complacent. The various group within the state leadership as well as the disgruntled voice against some new faces joining the party will definitely take its toll. Therefore it had to be seen how the party will be in a position to control and minimise such losses which will ultimately decide who becomes the head of this all important state with her strategic location and growing crime. Not to be forgotten Bengal has been the top state in political murders for the last few years . This will further grow as the elections approach. The party also has to deal with thi sin a much better planned way then what was seen in the loksabha elections.
We convey our best wishes to one and all and hope that the state will attain her lost glory once again.
Dr Asheesh Shah
Samanvaya
Http://www.samanvaya.org.in
