The United States of America will see 2016 presidential race ending on 8th November (USA time) (http://edition.cnn.com/election).
All though to date the predictions are favoured for Hilary Clinton by as much as a 5 point lead, there are still chances for Trump to cover up. But unfortunately his zodiac sign lord Sun is poorly placed this November , while in the case of Hilary the moon will be in her ninth house on the day of elections promising victory and therefore the chances are Hilary is going to be the next US President even astrologically if you don’t believe in statistical forecasts and surveys ( well obviously for some..but still needs to be confirmed ). No doubt, We are placing our bets on Hilary Clinton. ( http://www.dailyo.in/voices/us-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-republicans-democrats-astrology/story/1/13607.html)
So is it good or bad for the USA and the world ? More importantly for India ? To be sure the winning of Hilary is like an assured policy framework for which both Obama and Narendra Modi have already done sufficient work. Therefore it will not be difficult for Hilary and her democratic team to tread upon the path and bolster the relationship further.
But the real challenge to US and its interests come from a rising and rather aggressive posturing of China. The recent volte face of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is a case in point ( read the excellent article by C Raja Mohan : http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/china-philippines-sinosphere-rodrigo-duterte-south-china-sea-3101134/) .
It comes as a surprise and shock to many as recently a court ruled in favour of Philippine over South China seas territorial rights. However China has blatantly refused to observe the court’s ruling. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china).
As we observe Russia is also inching towards China slowly , gradually, hesitantly but for sure.
Europe is becoming weaker by the day with problems of its own, be it Greece debt crisis, Brexit , Terrorism events in France and else where. The migrants coming from Syria has confused Germans , where it has also become a major political issue.
Iran , Iraq, Syria are are struggling for their existence and cultural identities under the onslaught of ISIS.
The oil exporting countries ( OPEC) and its leader Saudi Arab too are weakened due to the fall in oil prices which has made life difficult atleast for some countries.
Pakistan as usual keeps its terror factory churning sometimes to kill others and at times to test few samples for its own people.
Among the BRICS, Except for two countries India and China, most of the other countries are having one issue or other.
The Obama administration while definitely was human in many respects but has not been able to wield power as much across the globe which requires one to be ruthless, ambitious and perhaps driven by some eccentricity and irrational logics. therefore it was an opportune time for China to showcase its powers by hacking American sites and check mating US in South China seas.
Under the circumstances the United States will elect its next President. Therefore the questions that can be placed are :
1. Will US be able to recover and claim its leadership position ?
2. Is Hilary Clinton the right President for the same , politically and otherwise ? ( we don’t underestimate her capabilities but international politics is a different game all together. All though she has hold important portfolio yet the top post of US is a different game.).
3. India can become a strategic partner for USA, but is that in the interest of India (100%, to be sure ) , considering we have the dragon and the snake on our borders.
4. USA still has sophisticated military power but will it be able to use them against China or for that matter others.
5. The positioning of Philippine President shows that how under pressure countries melt, will other countries follow suit ? ( which are more likely ..think over it .).
6. How can India take on a rising China with or without USA. What strategy needs to be in place. ( please refer our previous article https://www.facebook.com/samanvayain/posts/1813221952251609).
7. Another dimension is relations between India and Russia which has stood the test of time and hence cannot be overlooked . As the Pm himself said an old friend is better than two new. ( Please read our post on the same here-https://www.facebook.com/samanvayain/posts/1808638956043242).
Certainly there are many more questions that need to be answered. .
All these questions need to be answered meticulously and diligently. It appears that the world is finally turning on its axis politically, and we need to know and understand all the parameters in this changing world order especially when the United States itself is on the verge of a make or break position wrt its leadership .
