Whether one likes it or not, one must admit that Putin is an autocratic nationalist who has to defend the security of his country. The western countries that all have huge democracy are also vulnerable to political and greedy ambitions that one blames on autocratic nations. Though morally and ethically Putin seems to be wrong but one can’t ignore the options he had to deal with the Nato. In our opinion, it’s all a very tough situation and both the parties are more or less equally to share the blame. This may look rather negative depending upon which side you are of the north pacific-barring sea island Diomede. one has to see the interview of Tulsi Gabbard, the Republican leader if you are a staunch American supporter. 

The Ukraine issue is not new and all parties have been doing their bit in the past. If things have come to a boiling point then there is a good history behind it and we recommend this article from Foreign Affairs [1].  The expansion of Nato has been going continuously over the years and the inclusion of Ukraine in Nato was the last thing that Russia could tolerate both strategically and otherwise.

Therefore it is not a very good idea to find errors between the parties rather one must take lessons from the whole affair and from an Indian perspective. 

1. This is no ordinary war but it opens deep-rooted fissures between Russia and European countries as well as the United States. And even between Europe and the United States. 
2. It has all the potential to grow big and take us to the brink of another world war or almost near to it in scale and catastrophe, is no restraint is adopted by one and all. 
3. There seems to be a clear bonding between Russia and China which cannot be considered merely as temporary. There could be a quid pro quo relationship between the two countries which has ramifications for India ( do read our previous post). 
4. Pakistan PM Imran Khan visiting Russia during this time is not auspicious for India. Russia should not have invited him, but it seems that this has been facilitated by China and is another reason for India to be worried about. However, it is also reported that Putin invited Imran Khan as an alibi to confuse western observers that he is not considering war on Ukraine. 
5. China has been showing no interest outwardly but is watching the game with huge interest and lessons for itself going forward. It has been eyeing Taiwan as well as South China seas for years on and our greatest fear is that China will take a cue from this episode and will prepare the strategy for itself. 
6. We are also fearful that as China has given sufficient room to Russia on its northeastern borders, Russia will be forced to pay back the same to China when it confronts the USA and even India. 
7. Another important observation is America and many other European nations have talked rather than taken concrete action. American spokesperson was continuously warning about imminent war but was unable to stop it. 
8. This should be an eye-opener for Taiwan too, which is depending on western nations. But in reality today’s world has become so complex and all nations are besieged by their own problems. Therefore no nation will be in a position to defend others. Even Nato the largest union of nations group has become weak and the delay in making Ukraine a Nato nation is ascribed. 
9. Russia has also broken Ukraine into three pieces by giving recognition to Ukraine’s eastern parts Luhansk and Donetsk. India has, therefore, maintains its position in Kashmir while also trying to weaken PoK and Baluchistan. Its clear survival of the fittest. 

10. There will be high pressure on petrol/gas prices, leading to another round of inflation which will keep the Modi government also under duress and will not allow taking welfare projects for the citizens who are highly influenced by unemployment and inflation.

Conclusion:

One clear message is India has remained on alert as well as be ready to defend itself even of that means by nuclear power. The enemies must know that we can go to any extent. Only a strong deterrence will be able to check the enemies and any weakness on behalf of our leaders may prove disastrous. Therefore the government and the top leaders must act with conviction and even small incursions and encroachments must be given befitting response militarily and otherwise. 

China is a very shrewd country and keeps checking the will of her opponents. Today also it ordered its fighter planes to go inside Taiwanese territory. This shows the nations don’t have any qualms or compassion. 
Therefore it is necessary that India takes all precautions and does not hesitate to take any action when required be it Pakistan or any other country. 

This episode will also test Indian diplomacy on various fronts. PM Modi has to be prepared and discuss various options on a regular basis with his team, especially EAM Dt Jaishankar and NSA. These are no ordinary times and we expect the dragon to be on the prowl in a month or two months’ time. 

There are also big changes happening with new groupings like QUAD versus Russia, China, and Iran. It will not be easy to navigate with such a complex situation. India has to be indeed very careful and must bolster its own security independently with Atma Nirbhar Bharat and be secured in terms of its energy, semiconductor, and other needs. It is also pertinent to make sure that all foreign components and instruments from cameras to routers and servers are immediately banned in critical places and are replaced. The war as shown by Russia starts through a mix of hybrid tactics and it is important that we are not caught on the wrong foot at any time.

 References:
1. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-12-28/what-putin-really-wants-ukraine
Asheesh Shah

Samanvaya

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