| Finally, the Taliban have taken over Kabul as the Afghan President Ghani has fled. This should be the biggest story for the century as the world will see going forward. It will be remembered for the failure of Americans and their hasty departure from the region; Biden’s foolish decision to abandon Afghan; The helplessness of the World and most importantly the dilemma of Indian strategists. The writing was clearly on the wall when the Biden administration announced its intention to leave Afghan in a timely manner by 31st August 2021. There was still time to handle the job and form alliances and strategize the whole afghan scenario. Indian intelligence has been saying about the same even earlier. We have written a blog a few days back on the consequences arising from the afghan situation and has suggested that PM Modi must grab the opportunity to show his statesmanship, leadership for Afghanistan and leave behind a lasting legacy [1]. The Challenge: The international media has taken note of the situation with many articles and opinions coming with warnings [2]. It writes, ” While the Taliban are issuing statements about ensuring “the transition process is completed safely and securely, without putting the lives, property and honor of anyone in danger,” the danger is their actions will be quite different . Controlling the customs posts and border crossings (aside from Kabul airport) and with the Afghan military collapsing, the Taliban hold the cards. Russia and China will be comfortable engaging with the group’s leaders. But already there are reports the militants are seeking to reimpose the fundamentalism that defined their earlier rule. Two decades of painful but hard-won progress for women and civil society could vanish. A concern for neighbors is that an exodus of refugees from Afghanistan could include terrorists and Uyghur separatists. The Taliban might permit groups like al-Qaeda to train and operate from there.”. However, our worries are coming from the fall out of the region on Kashmir. As the Pakistan government is full hand in gloves with the Taliban the consequences for Kashmir must not be ignored. Then there is the China factor too. Thus India will have the unfortunate challenge of checking the situation from a wider perspective. The Taliban govt has already declared to have an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan which should remind us of iSIS and the fate of Syria in past few years. Thus the whole region can become the hotbed of terror and plunder. The state of women will be most tragic as we have seen in the Middle East wars. Challenges for India will only rise no matter what happens in the region. Looking for a solution: It is not that all is lost. India can still take control of things and look to play its role decisively. Russia has come up with a proposal to form an alliance with Iran and India on her side which can be looked into [3]. Besides the country can also look towards America and European countries to address the situation. The international community is looking for a reliable and trusty alliance for Afghanistan. Fortunately, the credibility of Pakistan has taken a beating with its role in terror funding and alliances with Terror outfits are not well known and exposed. If India plays her role well and this is what we intend to convey through this post. then not only the country but personally PM Modi too has an opportunity that has to be grabbed and pursued. Leaving Afghan and playing no role will be suicidal. It is time for the government to act and act fast. If Indians are able to provide a good solution to the Afghani government it will be also able to confront Pakistan from a position of advantage. Therefore this is a one-time opportunity that cannot be missed. By playing a vital and central role in Afghanistan we can make sure to deal in positive spirits with China, Iran, Russia, and the United States. Yes, there will be losses both monetary and maybe personnel but then leadership cannot be gained without due sacrifices by any nation. Conclusion :The Afghanistan situation provides the ultimate opportunity for India to play its role and capture an important seat not only in the region but also at the international level. One thing that is being observed is that there is a vacuum at the international level which can be filled only by India as it has a good standing in the world. We request the security, strategic community of the country and PM Modi to look into the issue at the earliest and take control. References: [1] http://samanvaya.org.in/afghan-taliban-and-the-united-states-what-next-pm-modi-has-the-opportunity-to-demonstrate-statesmanship-and-a-lasting-legacy/[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-08-15/what-next-for-afghanistan-under-the-taliban[3] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-interested-in-involving-india-iran-to-bring-peace-in-afghanistan-sergey-lavrov/articleshow/85332559.cmsDr. Asheesh Shah Samanvaya.org.in |
