Disclaimer: This is an independently written article by the author without allegiance to any political party, ideology or government.
Most of the people who are in power or are making policies have not seen World war 2 that divided the countries in two zones. IN the sense that they were there but were not part of a policy or the government.
Therefore the present crisis is the first of its kind with very HARD choices and diplomacy. We shall elaborate the above the same here.
If one sees the present setup, it is obvious that China stands to gain from the whole scenario. AS Russia gets sucked up, China stands better chances to penetrate deep into Europe. Interestingly China has excellent relations with Ukraine and we are told in fact has a nuclear treaty also with Ukraine (unconfirmed). No doubt Russia will win the war but the costs will be heavy. AS of now, NATO has made it clear to not interfere militarily which is the best thing to happen. Meanwhile, the QUAD meet was also held successfully which is positive news.
We are of the opinion that India has to make sure that Russia does not sink in this whole crisis. It has to prop up Russia because Russia is the best answer to any Chinese Provocation. Second If Russia and China get closer, with China fulfilling all the needs of it during this sanction period, it will make Russia to become more dependent on China. Therefore India has to be sure that Russia’s dependency on China is not total and India takes a good share out of it. This means India has to trade more with Russia and also help it with its economic sanctions. There is also news that India is considering allowing Rupay and UPI mode of financial transactions for Russia.
It is also interesting to watch the video of the Russian Ambassador to India Danis Alipov, posted on Twitter. He is just short of threatening India to take a side. He says, “The current crisis in Ukraine will have consequences for the whole world, including for Russia-India relations, and the extent of its impact cannot be envisaged now” [1] We don’t know what prompted the ambassador to say so.
He further says, “At the same time, India can take advantage of the situation to bolster economic ties with Russia as Moscow’s Western partners have refused to cooperate with it.
The Russian envoy said the current situation has presented a “window of opportunity” for Indian businesses to expand their presence in Russia and that it would make sense for India to take a closer look at economic cooperation with Russia.
WE need to take this seriously. In fact this is a good opportunity for India to extend and strengthen its relationship with Russia. India can help Russia and also negotiate hard for some good strategies as well as other deals. For one it can ask Russia to mitigate the threats emanating from China. The two countries can also work out infrastructure and economic deals, especially in the area of energy. In fact, there are so many fruits lying low on the branch that if India fails to pluck them it will be a HUGE opportunity lost. More so because there is China who will waste no time stealing the fruits. This will make sure that China gets more importance in Russia’s eyes while the role and importance of India get diminished. India has to make sure that this does not happen and it has an upper hand in Russia wrt China.
Though Russia and China have become closer in recent times but as we have said earlier also a Russia-India tie will always be stronger inherently than a Russia-Chinese bond because of geopolitics and other considerations.
Having said that the question of America comes which will never like this to happen. In fact, there is all possibility that if India tries to help Russia during this crisis, after remaining absent in the UN meetings on Russia, the relations between the two might take a big dip. But then one has to also note that Germany and Hungary have said to be not going for energy sanctions against Russia. This means that all countries have the choice to look into their own interests but also support the US and NATO moves in principal. America has to be convinced hard about India and its role in all future.
If one reads the above paragraphs minutely one will find that THERE IS THIS SMALL WINDOW OF DIPLOMACY AND MANEUVERABILITY that can be exploited. But it will require very extra finesse and craftsmanship. That is the challenge we are talking about. We hope that PM Modi will take time before 10th March, when the state elections results come out. We think that once the election results are out PM Modi will not have the time to focus on Russia and therefore the two days today and tomorrow is an excellent time to call a comprehensive meeting on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
It was GOOD to read yesterday the PM called both the Presidents of Ukraine as well as Russia. India must make sure that it remains high in diplomatic talks for peace and should be proactively engaged with all parties. It must make sure that China does not get all the credits for brokering peace. China is an expert like the proverbial MONKEY who eats bread between two warring parties.
Conclusion:
While the present scenario is very serious for the world it also provides some HIGH-RISK HIGH GAIN sort of things. The risks can be minimized through clever play. Moreover of India doe snot buy the risks someone else will for sure which will not be in India interest. India has to make sure Russia does not become a puppet country for China. It has to keep it propped up for its own security needs. America has to understand this finer game that is being played. Anyone who plays it with arrogance and crudely will be a loser not only in the short run but in the long haul.
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