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2024 : Challenges to BJP and India. Complacency and incumbency with rising inflation can be the biggest drag
Elections to the Loksabha are scheduled in 2024. While BJP will be fighting to maintain its power at the center, opposition will be not only trying to dislodge the Modi government but there are also other things at stake for them.
As of now the opposition still seem to be weak and lost. Though Rahul Gandhi is doing his Bharat Jodo yatra it is at best being able to get some media coverage. WE are not sure whether its having any impact on the ground , on the public or even the karyakartas. Rahul Gandhi for some strange reasons has grown his beard and resembles a businessman who has lost everything.
The TMC in Bangla is also subdued and so is the MVA gathbandhan in Maharashtra. The DMK is also getting weaker by the day. The LDF in Kerala may finally give way to BJP. Thus the picture looks quite optimistic for BJP.
The little challenge that comes or can come is from the Aam Aadmi Party and the Telangana leader Chandrashekhar Rao. Unless some major catastrophe happens the BJP should win the 2024 elections comfortably.
Well, well well, this is a simplified observation and what can be termed as on paper. The ground reality and actual voting on election day can shock even the most comfortable party.
The BJP will be carrying a huge incumbency factor in 2024. This along with inflation and increasing gap between the rich and the poor is a dangerous sword hanging over its electoral prospects. This is also seen in the ongoing state elections and MCD fight in Delhi. Many of the voters may not turn up for voting. This could be a challenge.
While BJP will win sureshot in Gujarat we are not so sure in Himachal Pradesh. In Gujarat PM Modi’s name is sufficient to get the voter cast favourably their vote. The main challenge in Gujarat will come from AAP where as usual the party is once again relying on free bies, name of Kejriwal etc. The AAP party is not lookiing to form a govt in Gujarat, But if they are bale to win a few prestigious seats they will be happy and take it to the nation with a swag. This will pave their way for national challenge and a strong contender to be number two for 2024.
From the feedback of HP, we think that BJP will form the government, but will it be very comfortable, or get just enough seats or if it will be just short of a clear majority is what bothers us. The signals are not very strong as in Gujarat.
In Delhi once again the AAP is challenging BJP ruled MCD. We have said earlier also that BJP has lost some opportunity to expose Kejriwal in Delhi on the development front. The party now has to be more sharp in its attack and does not shy in doing so. As usual local issue will be more important and the candidates must make sure atleast to meet once the voters. In our ward we have not seen the BJP candidate in this election or previous. They all are big leaders who think that voters will just vote for them. The question is WHY ? And if people like us can think this, what about the normal and unattached voters or even the voters who have given their support to BJP in the past. The point is though Modis name is still magocal the candidates must also do their own bit and convince voters of their sincerity. During PM Modi’s government many leaders have been just lucky to win in Modis name.
Our worries are not for BJP but the nation. WE are of a very strong opinion that all the work done by Modi and his government may just fall if some other party or coalition may form govt in 2024. The country is still vulnerable from many angles and the work started by PM Modi and his govt is not over yet. Though this government and initiated and reformed many things but the system remains the same though the bricks and mortars have been replaced at many p;aces. And that is what worries us. The Modi govt has to work to change the SYSTEM at many places and that is the biggest challenge for the party and the government and the Sangh.
We propose the following for various parties to boost their chances not only in these local and state elections but also for 2024. .
1. BJP has to be sharp and focused in its attack. Candidates who have just survived on the name of PM Modi have to be dropped.
2. BJP has to work in rural areas and among poors . Though the Free ration has helped them and kept sentiments down yet the inflation and incumbency factor can play a role. People would like to see some real GIFT for them before 2024.
3. The best support for BJP can come from the middle class and the upper class. Still they have to be kept in good humor with rebates in Income tax and other financial benefits. Education is another field where the BJP can try to make things easier for these core voters.
4. Have a collection of GOOD speakers. Though the BJP primarily relies on Modi Shah, Yogi is also a good mass mobiliser. Young leaders like Assams Hemanta Biswas Sarma , Devendra Fadnavis are also good. WE have seen that Ministers like Anurag Thakur are also most effective in their speeches. Anurag Thakur must be goven good space to campaign as he directly connects with the voters, gives a patiently and logically reasonable speech which can be very effective across all class from rural to urban and semi urban.
5. BJP must also try to go to as many houses and talk to voters. This will boost the voters’ sentiments. Target must be to do as much as personal contact atleast by a leader of some weightage. The party must ask its recently retired leaders to do this.
6. The party should be seen as fighting on one single unified platform. Any weakness and bitterness among leaders can prove heavily counter productive. So be it Gadkari or Rajnath or Yogi or any other they all should be seen in their best mood and form.
7. Though the party has done GOOD work and there is no DOUBT on it but the perception matters and nothing should be taken for granted. The party has to convince the voters of the party and the Modi government’s work through heavy canvassing and publicity. It should try to convince the voters that India needs BJP and Modi else it will sink permanently. It must try to get a vote share of more than 50 % and that should be the target.
8. The BJP must recruit as many volunteers and try to create a bigger umbrella and family for the nation. There is still too much distance between the power centers and karyakartas, While those in power are able to get good benefits the average karyakartas is left to feed for himself.
9. Sangh must not give power in the hands of very young karyakartas. .
10. The congress can do some good work by atleast showing sincereity in its fight and campaign and by giving candidature to good honest persons. It should look for a change in its approach and leave the previous baggage. The party needs big transformation to come back. Some voters may still vote for it but it will be hard for the party to be a strong contender especially when AAP has cleverly stolen the rug under its feet.
11. The AAP party must focus on states where its already in power. Kejriwal is a man in hurry and greed and that is biggest weakness. The party is rumoured to be run by leftist groups of the US and is an open threat to INdian democracy. It must try to clear its name from such names.
WE have given an honest opinion for all parties. BJP is going strong as of now but should not take anything for granted. One wrong move can take it far from the voters. It must also keep a watch on geo politics and especially nations like Pakistan and China. It has been proved that all enemy nations work together and try to interfere in the democratic set up of other nations. China does this in many nations including America and there is no reason why it wont or is doing the same in India. Pakistan is a known dog in all such anti India issues.
with best wishes
Dr Asheesh Shah
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