Between the devil and the deep sea: Putin ups the ante with N-word. The world has to take it seriously..
Russian President had to again resort to the N-word as the western world led by the US mounts pressure in multiple ways and Ukraine forces capture lost territories in the past few weeks. President also invoked partial military mobilization and brought extra 3,00,000 forces into the open. Earlier PM Modi was praised by the world especially by America and France for their statement made to President Putin during the SCO summit in Kazakhistan.
The PM said to Putin in one-to-one statement that was telecast worldwide- “Today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.”Responding to Modi, Putin said: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, about your concerns that you constantly express. We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its abandonment of the negotiation process, and declared that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, as they say, ‘on the battlefield.’ Nevertheless, we will always keep you informed of what is happening there.”
America is under the clutches of BIG LEFT-led ECOSYSTEM and the DEEP STATE for whom nothing matters in the world but for their own interests and goals. If one wants to understand world policy and America this observation is very important. “There’s definitely a deep state,” Snowden told the Nation in 2014. “Trust me, I’ve been there.”
(Ref 2. Michael J. Glennon’s 2014 book, National Security and Double Government).
We will write more on this separately but if one sees the current global environment then this statement cannot be ignored.
Second, what we read and watch in media is at best is half-truths half lies ( esp on critical issues). The propaganda war against Russia and Putin is huge. Whatever one reads has some vested interest behind it and cannot be taken at face value.
And the third is the language and statements Americans use to make their point or send the message across is unparalleled. And in our opinion, no one in the world has that power except maybe for the Chinese. But the Chinese make different types of statements that are normally fake and threats which is part of the dragon’s propaganda machine. These statements are made by a Chinese spokesman or at best the Foreign minister, seldom by the President. In the US it’s part of day-to-day press releases and statements made while on tour and other engagements.
Whatever is happening in Ukraine -the Russian crisis is no ordinary thing. This is not a simple war and we must be pretty clear on this. At stake is the existence of Russia and its President Putin. After being denied Putin’s overtures to be friendly with NATO and even join it, Putin changed the rule of the game, and then Georgia, and Crimea all happened. The last in the series was Ukraine but by then the west got a handle in the form of President Zelensky in Ukraine who went all hog to fight the Russian aggression. Though initially Ukraine suffered the most and lost important territories to Russia, the tide has changed in the past few weeks where Ukraine has cornered Russian forces at some places and is also getting its lost territories back.
At this point, we have seen the statement coming from PM Modi to President Putin during the SCO meet. It is important to note that China and its president XI also do not had a good time for at least one year or maybe more. There is an economic crisis, and also covid. Xi is seeking a third term for himself very soon and needs to show something to the politburo to get reconfirmed. There is already some noise that he may not be able to do so. Thus we also say some ‘Noora kushti’ on Taiwan between America and China. ( Noora kushti is a term which is meant to be a competition that is friendly inherently) .
China is also supporting Russia half-heartedly. Though it benefits out of it for two reasons and hitting two competitors with one stick. The Ukraine-Russia crisis has weaned Russia and also got America indirectly at war with Russia. This is good for China per se as it is able to divert the focus from its own problem and also on Taiwan and its other sinister moves. But the problem is the poor economic situation the world is facing is not good for anyone. Inflation is high everywhere. China may like both Russia and US to falter without affecting its own interests as mentioned above and at the moment it can be safely said that it’s in a win win in situation from the event but it will gradually move away from Russia as Putin calls for more help.
With the latest statements made by President Putin, about partial military mobilization which is considered an official announcement of war ( previously Ukraine crisis was called as a special operation which is different from an official war announcement). For Ukraine and the West, a Russian mobilization would be a psychological shock at first. The weaknesses of the Russian army will continue to benefit Ukraine, but a mobilization would signal a renewed resolve by the Russian leadership to stave off defeat at any cost—even the cost of domestic support. If Putin goes all in, the West will have to once again assess his state of mind and the potential for major military escalation.
Ref 3. http://samanvaya.org.in/trending/putins-next-move-in-ukraine/
An important option that Putin might exercise will be by taking a cue from the Chinese who show abundant Patience in dealing with any geopolitical situation. Recently the Chinese have been quoted as saying ” we have the patience to take Taiwan”.
Thus, Another option available to Putin is some form of retreat. In choosing this path, he would have to give up on the prospect of a genuine victory. He could seek to keep the war going, reducing commitments to the minimum needed to hold the territory already gained in the east and south. He could return to his 2014 approach to eastern Ukraine—keeping occupied territory under Russian control but without advances, thereby destabilizing the entire country—but with a much greater Russian military presence. Giving up on victory, however, would mean halting offensive operations. Putin would never admit that he was giving up. He would suggest that the war will escalate later, that his designs on Ukraine have not changed, and that his claim to success will derive from his strategic patience.
Same as above: Ref 3. http://samanvaya.org.in/trending/putins-next-move-in-ukraine/
Besides, these two extreme options Putin may very well opt for the middle path. Given the domestic risks associated with both mobilization and retreat, Putin may well try to find a middle way. For Ukraine and the West, this option would be less dangerous than a full mobilization but still a serious challenge in the next months and years. Searching for new ways to prosecute the war without the risks of mobilization, Putin could have several courses of action.
Conclusion and our take: The long winter wait
Putin might be wishing for an early winter this year/season. That is the best hope for him as the European countries and especially Germany and France start feeling the pressure of a growing energy crisis and rising prices. That will provide Putin the much-needed breathing space as his negotiation power increases. But the winter is still two-three months away in the best-case scenario. Germany has also started storing energy for the winters and can prolong the actual crisis.
Therefore the next few months become very crucial. It is in this context that we have to look at the statement of President Putin on the N-word and also mobilizing forces. The west should not force Putin beyond a limit that is a clear message now. President Biden has called Putin’s statement a bluff. But let us not treat it that way. IN the real world nothing can be termed as BLUFF these days as we have been witnessing fast-changing geopolitics.
We dont say that Putin will use any extreme step but if he is pushed towards a wall what are the options for him? As already noted above there are three best-case scenarios but world events don’t follow rationality otherwise either world war 2 would not have happened nor Hiroshima would have been bombed. There has to be always space for the last and worst option, the most unlikely event even if the probability of the same is less than 1%.
Therefore its time that the West and especially US release the pressure and allow Ukraine to engage with Russia in its own way. The US can look to other issues meanwhile. Its mid-term elections are not far in November. China is also on the verge of a major decision.
We would request all parties to take a breather. As PM Modi rightly said this is not the era of war. Maybe PM Modi needs to talk to western leaders this time and advice them to remain low. The west is also willing to allow PM Modi a mediator place, which is what we take it from the vast endorsement it bestowed upon the PM after his statement to Putin. When the Washington Post praises PM Modi it cannot be an act of charity or ethical journalism. There is much at stake. PM Modi and EAM Jaishankar need to tread on the mediator space but very very wisely.
Note: We don’t favor any nation explicitly but stand for truth and world peace. The views are of the author without any allegiance to any organization, individual, or nation. We like the liberal values of the US as much as the support of Russia to India historically.
Dr Asheesh Shah