|Disclaimer: This is an independently written article by the author without allegiance to any political party, ideology, or government. |
As they say, one can start a war in no time but ending the war is in no one’s hands. This is what is happening in the Ukraine-Russia crisis. It has become very clear that The Russian war planners, strategists and President Putin has terribly gone wrong in their initial assessment and even later decisions to get Ukraine under their hold.
First, no one expected Ukrainian President Zelensky to show such grit and determination for no world would suffice to praise what he has shown to the world in defending his nation.
BY almost all accounts other than Russia, there is a unanimous opinion that Russian President Vladimir Putin has miscalculated, maybe on his own, or at the advice of his Generals and strategy planners. There was also this brewing hot chemistry between Russia and China that made Putin a bit overconfident. It should be also noted that the present circumstances offered Russia the best environment to seize Ukraine. The world was reeling after an ongoing coronavirus epidemic, America was perceived to be a weak dithering state under President Biden not sure of itself and its foreign policy ( and indeed it has been proved that way). Thus Putin saw all the factors adding up and crossing his threshold decision value to attack Ukraine.
But as they say, you can’t control what destiny has in store for you fits appropriately in this case. We don’t wish to go into the what and Ifs of this crisis now but can’t restrain ourselves to delve into the future course that might take shape and what the world leaders including PM Modi must try for.
As many experts ( Michael Koffman, Thomas Friedman, Foreign Affairs, et al. See our Trending news section on Samanvaya.org.in for all such news ) have opined that the options left with President Putin are decreasing by the day and increasingly dangerous by the minute. For Mr. Putin has put himself against a dead-end where one side he has the defiant Ukrainian President ( Zelensky) and citizens fighting to defend their country assisted by NATO and European nation and on the other end he has his own country, his prestige, and of course the big ego which always plays a crucial critical role in any major war. This desperation was seen when the Russians tested Hypersonic missiles and warned the world of consequences.
Besides the sanctions are also playing a vital role and may hurt Russia more than any other nation.
We are of the opinion that this war has now approached where DIPLOMACY can play a BIG ROLE. Diplomacy is all about timing. It can work as a poison at the wrong time and as Sanjivini at the correct. We believe that time is ripe now for the diplomatic mission to be launched. America must also keep its ambition and ego aside and look for an early peaceful settlement else things may go well beyond anyone’s imagination.
When someone is stuck in the mud or is sinking in deep waters it’s necessary to extend ropes to him/her so that the person is able to save himself/herself. Else the person who may have some kind of arms is most likely to shoot others in frustration. This is what the situation looks like at the present moment.
China which was playing a good friend’s role so far with Russia is now getting distressed as well as confused. No one expected that the crisis would go so far or rather took it leniently and kindly. Economic sanctions are hurting China too and its relations with the EU as well as America are now being tested. President Biden is said to have rebuked China (and India with the lesser degree to us) for its role in the crisis.
It is therefore necessary that instead of pushing Russia and Putin further towards the wall it is better to offer him some kind of rope so that he may extract himself from the self-driven suicidal mission that he has launched. Easy to say but the world is so complex that it is a hard if not impossible task.
Some world leader and their foreign mission dept must take this challenge and try to defuse the crisis that otherwise has all the potential to cripple the world at least another month by which time we don’t know what all can happen. India has to keep a tight watch on all the updates and outcomings happening across the world as the next month looks full of events. As a friendly and peace-loving nation, it can also look for intermediation at this point in time.
Dr Asheesh Shah
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