How to deal with Pakistan and China : an analysis post Surgical Op- part I


The Surgical strikes post Uri attack have not only given the nation and its citizens a moment of some Asmita, or what you call as Pride and honour but also important lessons that cannot be ignored. There are of course lessons and experience for the Army, MoD, but also for strategists in Foreign ministry and other places. It is therefore very important to devote some time to see what they are and how can they be used for framing and moulding our policies. ( Here we shall focus on Pakistan.

1. First and foremost it has given us i.e the Indian Army and the nation the confidence of taking a shot at its arch rival and inside its territory. Mind that confidence is more important than any amount of sophisticated stock of arms and ammunition or for that matter nuclear arsenal having missiles with nuclear tips.

2. Besides it has given the army a first hand tactical strategy to deal with Pakistan.
3. More importantly the Army and the country has learnt how Pakistan has dealt itself after our operation. So far it was Pakistan that used to watch how we dealt after a terrorist attack. But this time after the surgical strike army, MoD, PMO , IB, RAW , MoEFA must have observed and noted how Pakistan establishment ran from pillar to post like a Humpty Dumpty child. ( Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall….Never to sit again on the wall)… So one saw the rift between the govt and the army coming out.
Please note that, In any crisis or disaster, the weakest links or features break first.
4. The Pakistan army was found in a state of disarray and confusion. What does it mean. It shows that when it comes to real war and crisis situation Pakistan army melts first as against India where crisis brings more resolute determination to fight the enemy.
5. To keep their ‘face saving’, the Pak army again started using Jihadi forces to infiltrate borders. That means the Pakistan army is not prepared to indulge in a war like situation with India and will try and keep using jihadi and terrorist activities for the same.
6.There was also international isolation of Pakistan and therefore we need to keep our diplomatic efforts in top gear and should not shy away from these efforts at every platform. The BRICS conclave in Goa is a case in point.
7. The Pakistan army is good at planning but lacks the execution and real life situations with grit. Whether it was Kargil or other wars they have never been able to confront India bravely. Pakistan will be never able to stand in front of India. And we must be able to understand and use it to exploit the situation in our favour.
8. Further the use of Jihadists forces suggests a lack of army like skills in the Pakistan army which relies more on guile, treachery and extremism. This is the main plank and hence strategy of Pakistan. India must look at these angles seriously and shape its policy to handle threats from Pakistan.
8. As an extension Pakistan will try to build its nuclear arsenal and keep blackmailing India. It becomes increasingly clear that Pakistan will not be able to use nuclear warheads against India and will use it as a pressuring tactics. However the threat can come if some insane military head or PM comes to lead Pakistan . The other channel is if the jihadi forces gets hold of the nukes which is a more dangerous and probable threat.
9. Pakistan has a good network of lobbyists in western nations that keeps the needle swinging to favour it. They have been good in convincing western nation especially United States about their strategic location and threat from India. They have successfully been using this strategy for the past. Recently US has understood this but still it is not sure when it can change its policy towards Pakistan and start favouring it. Therefore India has to deal with this situation carefully and build a strong lobby in India given our demography advantage in US.
10. Pakistan economy is not in very good shape and unemployment rates are quite high. Instead of Indus river treaty India must try to stop giving it the MFN status to Pakistan. Economic sanctions are the best way to deal with a enemy , that is what the western nations have done to deal with Iran and other countries..Let it face hard realities.
11. Indian Bollywood must be discouraged indirectly to take Pakistan artists . When Javed Miandad and Imran can speak in foul languages towards India and its PM , the message is wide and clear. There is no provision for soft policies while dealing with enemies and in war like situation.
12. India has gained a lot with the strike with invaluable lessons. The strikes have exposed the chinks in the armour of Pakistan. These must be now utilised to handle and keep Pakistan in check.

Asheesh Shah
Author: Asheesh Shah

No tags 0 Comments 0

No Comments Yet.