Background:: The Surgical strikes post Uri attack have not only given the nation and its citizens a moment of some Asmita, or what you call as Pride and honour but also important lessons that cannot be ignored. There are of course lessons and experience for the Army, MoD, but also for strategists in Foreign ministry and other places.
Winning war games its not just about having sophisticated arms and bravery but also to take a 360 degree view of things, identify the clinks in the armour of the enemy camp and exploit them; besides using their weakness and our strengths cunningly.
In part one we have tried to focus on Pakistan. It was to show how the Pakistan army is weak in certain areas and good at others and how we can exploit it to our benefit. It is not a very comprehensive article but is an effort to provide thought to the strategists and planners in MoD, PMO, Army etc.
Here we shall try to have a look at PRC or China.
During the Surgical strike, China was surprisingly keeping low profile and didn’t jump to the aid of his adopted sibling i.e Pakistan. However during the BRICS conference suddenly it conveyed strong support for Pakistan.
So the questions are why did China didn’t came forward outrightly after the surgical strikes and why did it came later.
We think that China does not act in impulse and gives due thought and deliberations to its military actions. It has long term strategy worked out and works very systematically to expand its borders and powers , be it Tibet, CPEC in Pakistan or South China seas.
Therefore the first and foremost conclusion will be to understand what are the Chinese long term ambitious and mindset in very clear manner. Is it a desire to rule the world or is it limited to extend its power in Asia. Does it see expansion as a means to bring peace and prosperity for its citizens or as a means of grabbing power to a select few overambitious members of the communist politburo.
Does it sees its neighbours as partners in progress or hurdles in its global power hunger plans.
It is necessary to understand Chinese philosophy and mindset very deeply to get and understand these questions correctly. (do read:: https://books.google.co.in/books?id=SRvJBQAAQBAJ&pg=PT510&lpg=PT510&dq=the+chinese+mindset&source=bl&ots=uuJ0XQvSWb&sig=O0EZ9S4Dm6N6Jt18pSnfkU9491k&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwir8fGchebPAhXJLI8KHQ6ED6w4ChDoAQhRMAk#v=onepage&q=the%20chinese%20mindset&f=false).
China has used and played the Pakistan card very well for not only increasing its presence in gulf and other regions but also to contain India.
As a first step India must strengthen its SAARC network sans Pakistan. It should also forge relationship with Philippine, Vietnam , Japan , South Korea, and Australia besides other regional nations.
It should not allow China to make inroads in Myanmar, Bangladesh Afghanistan and Nepal which are all too critical for India after loosing out Pakistan to China.
To keep China under check India also needs to take proactive initiatives and keep it under check.
It has to play well both with Russia and America which will be a real test for it.
Finally, It has to leverage its new economic boom not only to lure Europe and other western nations but more importantly to China.
This means there has to be a very strong foreign and commerce policy set up, that can play its card proactively and dynamically.
This requires creation of special desks in the commerce and foreign ministry to specifically deal with China and synergize policies and operations.
The time is just ripe to start the process but without loosing any further time.
Both China, Pakistan and to some extent India are vulnerable to economic slowdowns and natural disasters.
it is expected that unless miracle happens Pakistan will be the first to collapse under pressure. It could be floods or it could be economy. It could be terrorism or a mix of all. No national has a fool proof insurance against these issues.
Unless Pakistan stops its obsession with India , takes strong steps against Jihadi forces and brings sanity to army and ISI it is bound to doom.
Next we expect China to crumble under economic and pro democratic forces.
it can happen any time. We believe that these two events are most likely to happen in next ten years.
Thus india has an opportunity to stand strong without using bullets or firing missiles.
It just has to play its cards well and not allow the enemies to gain substantially on any front.
It has to diplomatically resist full fledged wars with both thee countries without allowing them any lee way through surgical and other tactical strategies.
There was an interesting article in TOI that looks to be written by a young Chinese corporate lawyer based in Beijing (http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/whos-the-overconfident-hare-indians-are-applying-the-hare-and-tortoise-parable-wrongly-to-india-and-china/).
The final lines of the article are ominous. it says and we quote, “As Indian development is held back by the threat of border conflict, high levels of spending diverted to defence, and insufficient infrastructure financing and foreign investment, the latest deployments in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh seek to irrationally exacerbate its problems. It is behaviour befitting an overconfident hare in a premature sprint for glory before exhaustion leaves him in the dust of the steady tortoise.”.
In others words the Chinese are trying to warn us to not increase our forces and build infra in Arunachal and Laddakh region through the pen of a corporate lawyer who can be a member of communist party if not politburo. A google search provides very little information of him (DeHeng Law Offices to which Kai Xue belongs and is a corporate lawyer based in Beijing who advises clients on investments in Africa and also works closely with China’s major policy banks, such as the Exim Bank and the China Development Bank. Kai Xue is also a regular commentator on Sino-African affairs in a number of Chinese and African newspapers and blogs).
The question is why would a corporate lawyer go to the extent of advising India through its media.
Today Chinese media has criticized indians as being lazy and has warned its investors.
The answer is clear China is afraid and it knows the truth.
Its a matter of time. Let us keep our brains in top gear and not fall in any traps coming from any side.
Let us be confident. We have a strong defence , economy and democracy.0