Source: UK Department for Transport

Excludes heavy trucks

The first lesson is that high-level policy targets can be overrated, while near-term regulations are often underrated.

The original gasoline and diesel vehicle sales phase-out target of 2030 was never clearly defined anyway, so moving it back has <span;> no real effect<span;>.

The ZEV mandate, on the other hand, has real teeth. Automakers that don’t comply have to pay up to £15,000 ($18,300) for each vehicle they miss targets by. The ZEV mandate was always going to do the heavy lifting.

As a whole, the UK auto market looks reasonably well positioned to hit the targets in the near term. Battery-electric vehicles made up 16% of total car sales in the first half of the year, up from 6.6% in 2020. Hitting 22% next year and 28% by 2025 will required continued growth and continued investment in charging infrastructure.

For individual automakers, though, the picture is much more varied. Automakers that are further along in their electric vehicle roll-out plans will have a big advantage in the years ahead, even though the mandate does provide others with flexibilities in the form of a <span;> credit-trading system<span;>.

Pure-play EV brands like Tesla, BYD and Polestar are way ahead of the targets, while Mercedes, BMW and Volvo are broadly on track. For Stellantis, Hyundai and Volkswagen Group, the share of their sales that have been electric this year has hovered around 15% to 16%.

Source: BloombergNEF, Marklines

Includes BEV sales only, excludes PHEVs. Chart excludes automakers like Tesla, BYD, MG and Polestar where EVs already make up most or all of sales.

The second lesson is that EVs will not escape the culture wars playing out across so many areas of public policy.

Sunak likely played his cards the way he did to try and boost his ratings by appearing to relax an environmental target in public on pragmatic grounds, while sticking to the more meaningful targets in the ZEV mandate in relatively private fashion.

This is a relatively subtle dance in the UK, where even conservative politicians are more environmentally minded than in the US. It won’t be as nuanced elsewhere.

Across the Atlantic, attacking EVs has turned into <span;> a staple<span;> of Donald Trump’s speeches. At a recent rally, Trump claimed that moving to electric vehicles would be “a transition to hell,” and to “unemployment and inflation without end.” Sensing opportunity, presidential hopefuls Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence and Vivek Ramaswamy have made similar statements deriding the Biden administration for its EV policies.

The back-and-forth during the last two weeks in the UK offers reasons both for optimism and pessimism as to how the next phase of EV adoption will play out.