|The coming of the Taliban in Afghanistan has opened a pandora box with ramifications that have the potential to change global contours and world order. Everything is not all that simple as it may look on the surface or obvious. For example, it is said that China and Pakistan may be the most beneficiary, yes they will be but strings attached and also with collateral damages.
The main players in the game are Russia, Turkey, Iran, United States, China, Pakistan, and India. Each of these countries will try to interfere in Afghanistan in their own ways.
However, we wish to focus on our own affairs before we write on others. Let us see how this impacts various entities in the country. Let us start with the nation first. The article is not exhaustive but is only suggestive in a limited form to various possibilities and outcomes.
National Level Impact: / Indian Army
As we have said the worst nightmare for us will be the use of the Taliban to strike us i.e. Kashmir through the PoK route. The whole Kashmir scenario can change with this new emerging possibility for which we have to start preparing ourselves in the right earnestness.
Despite soft voices being hurled from Taliban spokespersons, Pakistani establishments, and some sections of media it will be really foolish to ignore this coming threat. To overcome such threats India has to come up with a number of solutions that we have outlined in our previous blog.
We would like to repeat that to ignore these threats will be suicidal and India has to be proactive now and change its established strategies i.e. from being defensive to calculated aggression. The Guerilla warfare training has to be in focus and a separate unit of the same can be formed to handle the emerging situation as the Taliban are known to be more formidable than the usual terrorists in the valley.
WE have to focus on DRONES and other sophisticated technologies to overcome the threats from across the border. DRDO and other security agencies will have to utilize the expertise that is available from the Indian diaspora settled abroad and use the best resources for national welfare.
The new threat will usher in new challenges and a new forms of warfare and the country has to be prepared in advance for the same.
Law and Order: / Police
We also think that the country needs to raise an elite police force just like the commandos. The present form of Police in the country is very weak and will not be able to withstand any form of external turmoil. Take the example of the Afghan govt army which surrendered to the Taliban in no time. In India, the threats are not only external but have severe internal challenges too. We request HM Amit Shah to look into this matter seriously and do the needful.
Minorities and extremist factions:
Already a few in the country have started making noises in support of the Taliban. The Assam government caught 14 persons who posted in support of the Taliban on social media. Syria was still far and yet there were people who got carried away with the ISIS calls and ran away from their homes. Taliban are very close and it will be easy for the misguided to run away and join them. Pakistan as usual will play the conduit for all such activities.
Kerala has shown such inclination previously. Andhra, West Bengal are other states who may have to be careful and keep strict vigilance.
The average Muslim population has to be taken into confidence. All the same, what all measures are required has to be pushed. For example, the Uniform civil code has to be pushed at any cost. Population control measures have to be launched nationally and not state-wise. The central government can provide incentives to override any hurdles from State governments to overcome these measures. Recently we have seen how the Shiv Sena-led govt in Maharashtra immediately started another award in the name of Rajiv Gandhi once the central govt changed the name of Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna award to Dhyan Chand award. Such chicanery from state governments will be expected and the central govt has to take them into account before taking any action.
The Political Parties:
As the heat rises due to forthcoming elections and the Taliban gets settled in their seat the short-sighted political forces in the country will start making noises for minority and extremist thoughts.
It will be really unfortunate to read and watch what all these political parties will come up with to lure the minorities. It will be then up to the central government, BJP and the Sangh how they see to these challenges and work out winning solutions for themselves and the nation.
We are of the opinion that despite the national loss the BJP as a political entity can gain from the coming of the Taliban. This will help in mobilizing the Hindus as a one united group. In a way, this event can be a boon to the fortunes of BJP especially in the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh and other state elections. Moreover, if the party plays its cards well then it can come back again in 2024 easily.
For one the BJP can get the support of Brahmins who will be the most targetted with the extremist voices coming in the neighborhood and moving towards us. The BJP is already playing the OBC card well. It can be also used to bring together the Dalits and other weaker sections by invoking a threat to the nation and Hinduism.
One entity that has to play a major role henceforth will be the Sangh Parivar. The impact of the Taliban will have a major impact on the Sangh for which it has to remain alert. The Sangh Parivar has always remained ahead for nationalist causes be it in the form of natural disasters or political challenges. But the coming of the Taliban poses very serious threats to the nation that has to be matched by some serious discussions and thoughts by the Sangh.
The Sangh has to be more long-term view and not short-term. It has to train and motivate its karyakartas and pracharaks to the nest level of the nationalist cause. This is something where we see a clear shortfall.
It has to identify more individuals who ARE DEDICATED towards the nationalist cause and seek their contributions,.
It can also start working on Guerilla warfare training and form an alliance with the Government to encourage such training in select Sainik and other schools and colleges.
It has to promote NCC and other character-building measures to train young kids and school children.
It has to also motivate the political cadres and their own cadres to become selfless in the service of the nation. Recently we have seen many of the Sangh office bearers doing more politics than binding the nation. They have been more vested interests seen in them and less nationalism.
The same applies to its political arm the BJP where there is more fight for power than serving the nation. We are of the opinion that the Sangh and BJP must utilize the policy of Rotation to overcome such weaknesses in its hierarchy.
IN short, the destiny of the country will be in the hands of Sangh and how it thinks and acts. There is no doubt about that.
Media and Social Media:
The usual suspects in the media and social media will try to exploit the new situation that will be also funded by foreign-based agencies including the ISI and left-liberal lobbies. The government has to keep a tight vigil on what all is being said and posted on these channels and take appropriate steps.
The government can also encourage and help some nationalist media houses and forces to create the right narratives in the country. This is a very sensitive issue and has to be played well.
The country will also have to deal with various extremist elements present in the country, from Naxals to the fundamentalist who will be motivated by the Talibani government in the neighborhood.
As we see the impact of the Taliban will be felt on the nation in a big manner and has to be suitable;y prepared for all such eventualities. The willpower of the Modi government, as well as the Sangh parivar, will be on test in various forms. We hope that both will be able to overcome their inherent weaknesses and will be able to make the right decisions in the interest of the nation.
Dr. Asheesh Shah