Everything that goes around comes around. The Climax of Shiv Sena is a lesson for politics and politicians.

 Life seems to  have come full circle at Matoshree – the residence of Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray, and his son Aditya  Thackeray / to haunt as he may  be fighting the toughest political battle of his life so far. 
There are important lessons in the whole episode for all budding politicians and the present generation. A party whose in and out is wrapped in Bhagwa colour , decided to discard it and wear green or something like that. Can its supporters absorb it. It was a decision made by the top leadership of few parties without having any citizen mandate. this the climax is out and the Thackeray’s are fighting for their own survival .

Let us take a quick review and analyse the developing situation. WE would also like to place our apologies for our readers that we are not a political platform to discuss but would like to concentrate more on policies and international affairs esp in the foreign policy domain. But at times we have to write on such critical issues in the larger national interest. 

Summary of events:
Uddhav Thakeray formed the government ion Maharashtra after coming second in the state assembly elections to BJP and usurped power from the probable or legitimate claims of Devendra Fadnavis. Both Sena and BJP had fought the elections together and could have formed the government pretty well providing good stability and development to the state. 
But then Raja Ramchandra was also to be throned and had to go to Vanvas as Manthra did the trick to mislead Kakaiyee who in turn asked King Dashratha to pay back her two promises given earlier. Kakaiyee wanted her son bharat to be king of Ayodhya and not the elder brother Sh Ramachandra. 

Something similar happened in Maharashtra and when Devendra fadnavis was all set to occupy the chair of Chief Minister of Maharashtra when the devil in the form of Sharad Pawar and Sanjay Raut chipped in and convinced Uddhav Thackeray to form a government with the support of NCP of Pawar and also Congress. The new troika was called as MVA or Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi. Uddhav gave in as he wanted a place for his son Aditya to carry on the legacy and be the CM in days to come. He was made to believe that BJP would annihilate Shivsena in days to come and the future of Aditya and Sena will not be safe with BJP and Fadnavis as CM. 

Pawar and Raut are said to hobnobbing even before the elections. Raut, an average journalist / editor of Saamna, the newspaper belonging to Shivsena saw the opportunity in the whole episode for himself. No need to talk about Pawar who remains as elusive and cunning politicians as one can be. Both these traits are good for politicians but there has to be a dividing line, a threshold that Pawar seems to be missing and is often cited to do things that may not be in the best of national interest. It is said that there was one more p;layer in the background of all this machinations , i.e the wife of Uddhav Thackeray and also mother of Aditya. 

The Political Error: 

It’s true that Shivsena was getting marginalized by the BJP
The love and greed of Uddhav Thackeray to see the political career of his son safe and secure made him jettison the political ideology on which Shivsena stood for decades and from the times of great Balasaheb Thackeray the lionhearted unofficial king of Maharashtra.

Shiv sena gained whenever Balasaheb roared whether it was to challenge Pakistanis , or the bollywood bias towards Pakistan . He didn’t spare the cricket matches that were to be played in Mumbai between the two nations. It is said that he tamed the Dawood gangs and other mafia to not harm Mumbai and if anyone was threatened from the D gang the last resort was Balasaheb who could broker peace. He is also credited to help and bail out Sanjat Dutt when everyone else failed for which Sunukl Dutt was always obliged to him. No wonder in the present crisis, Priya Dutt twitted to support Uddhav Thackeray. 

Balasaheb also openly challenged the minority population in Maharashtra and esp Mumbai besides also went for North Indians as they saw them as threat to the Marathi manoos of the state and city. 

When your whole foundation is built is built upon Marathi and Hindutva ideology its nothing less than a political hara kari to abandon it. This is what is the biggest folly of Uddhav. On paper it looked very logical to form the MVA where you get votes of Shivsainiks and also muslims and congress supporters. A grand and stable strategy for decades to rule for the Thackeray family. 

But as they say things on paper are very theoretical to events in Life.  After a few attempts before, the BJP and fadnavis camp finally got their act together through some brilliant play akin to relay race and a chess game. The Thackerays were unable to see the trap and fell into it blindly. 

The trap of Fadnavis and BJP: But Don’t forget the real Chanakya Amit Shah. 

As they say sau sunar ki to ek Lohar ki. While Thackeray was going honky ponky with his MVA government,  corruption cases, total disarray and chaos the BJP was busy in laying the chess board.  People always underestimate the power and intelligence of BJPs Chanakya who can be credited to bring the party to this level along with PM Modi. We wonder why Prashant Kishor is given this credit. Without Shah, Modi could not have been here for sure. 

If one observes there were weak points and vulnerabilities in the strategy of Uddhav Thackeray that just had to be exposed and exploited. To give benefit of doubt to BJP as it says it does not have any hand in the current episode we will say that give credit to Amit shah and Fadnavis as a possibility of action and not in absolute terms. The readers are intelligent enough to make their own conclusions. 

The BJP played it pretty well here.After failing the first coup and getting humiliated at the hands of Ajit Pawar who can be as dicey as one can, the party focused itself on the weakness of the MVA government and started laying traps for it. The corrupt government of MVA and Uddav, the Sushant Singh Rajput episode, The rampant drug peddling, the cool nuisance of Nawab Malik, Sanjay Raut all became good fodder for the party to fine tune its strategy. It started conceptualizing the same and the game began atleast a six to eight months before the actual event happened with the rebel of Sena number two leader Ek nath Shinde from nThane the traditional fort of ShivSainiks with a sizeable conservative middle class Marathi population and other pro Hindu citizens. 

Uddhav was really naive ( and is still, we think politically) and had bad company and advisors like Raut who speaks out of turn without thinking and the old fox. The final nail in the coffin happened with Navneet Rana and other innocent citizens like Ketaki Chitale who all were manhandled by the Uddhav led MVA government. In between Raj Thackeray also tried to make his fortune come back but could not do much. The rift in the Sena was not wide and open. The real pro Hindutva Shiv Sainiks were feeling suffocated and frustrated inside the party. Plus there was the trio of Thackerays, Raut and Pawar that was calling the shots at the cost of other MLAs including from congress and independents. 
No wonder that the sand fort started crumbling with Ek Nath Shinde and his MLAS being flown to Surat and then Assam. The BJP also did good work here by giving the command operations to second generation karyakartas and office bearers and not the first generation and senior leaders. 

Our Advice

Even Balasaheb would have gone with Eknath Shinde for the cause of Hindutva which he has stood his lifetime. Choosing between Raj Thackeray and son Uddhav was rather straightforward for any Indian father but in this case EkNath Shinde has better claims for Shivsena and its pro Hindutva followers and supporters. In any case people or Shiv Sainiks who wish to go with Thackerays may choose to do so in personal or political capacity but under the banner of MVA. 

On his part Eknath Shinde must now adhere to the REAL Shivsena and its ideology i.e Pro Hindutva. He has got the numbers with him but has to be careful going forward. Not all of them would be strong Hindutva supporters nor  may accept his leadership as he does ot have a father figure behind his back.  It’s a sticky dias and Shinde would need all the skill and political acumen to survive and bolster his future as 

survive and bolster his future as leader of Sena. He will have to be sincere towards BJP and should have honest and transparent relationship with state as well as central leadership. There will be people like Manthra who will try to create rifts and  sow seeds of doubts. Over ambition will kill him and the sena along with him only to go back to Thackerays. 

Conclusion:

The climax will come on the floors of Maharashtra assembly. We are sure that the courts will rule out any disqualification of MLAs at this junction. It should uphold democratic norms an the numbers clearly favour that. 

The governor of Maharashtra must not waste any further time that could lead to horse trading and should call the assembly asap for a vote of confidence. The state machinery must also provide all support and safety to all the

MLA s and their homes and families. Democracy is safe until we are fair and honest. Best wishes to all the parties. 

Note: 

This is a story based on our own assumptions and analysis. There is no reason to believe that what all has been written is true or factual. There are sufficient reasons for the Sena to fall on its own with the obvious dichotomy. We have not received inputs from anyone nor are we in touch with any BJP leader on the subject.  To summarise, it’s a story and a narrative  that could be correct or false. 

with best Wishes

Dr.

0