In February 2023 Russia attacked Ukraine . The world was shocked. But many knew it was coming. A test of nerve was underway as early as 2014 or may be earlier when there was a coup in Ukraine and Zelensky came to power. Then a game of accusation started with an information war that reminded everyone of WW2. Depending upon which side of war one was, there were good reasons to be on either side as there was good activism on both sides and either both sides were guilty or none.

Initially the Russia had upper hand but slowly as Ukraine under Zelensky started gaining western support the table started to tilt.  Ukraine showed that it was no easy push and the Russians under Putin realised that something has gone wrong on their side. Again one was free to guess the victory on either side.

However all these is soon going to end as after the big tussle that killed thousand on both sides, but higher on Ukraine one. while the western media have painted Ukraine as a victory and have tried to create doubts about Putin and his capabilities the truth is not that. Indeed it has not been all that easy and Putin has faced challenges at war and also internal with the wagner group but by and large he has been doing well.

Most importantly Putin was able to keep his citizens at ease despite war and all that comes with it. People are able to buy vegetables and groceries besides other day to day utilities. Offices and businesses are going well. All this because INflation is under control which has been handled well by the central bank of the Russian Federation.

By and large the credit for this goes to Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina who is a Russian economist and current head of the Central Bank of  Russia. She was president Vladimir Putin’s economic adviser from May 2012 to June 2013 after serving as the minister of economic development from September 2007 to May 2012.Inflation has been under 2 % as per latest reports coming from Russian CRB. And that is the reason Putin has been able to fight the war for such a long time without any major repercussions back at home. He has been able to keep the Ukarinians under control and is said to approaching Ukraine at 10 Kms a day. This is of course said to be not high but has political reasons for it.

While Putin is marching towards Ukraine with his own pace the Ukrainians are paying very heavy price for it. The Euroepans have lost interest in the war though they have to be part of it because of Nato. Interestingly Poland a western neighbour of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus is trying to intervene in the war which may complicate things. For one Poland being apart of Nato, it involves the later due to article 5 of the treaty which says that any attack on fellow member will be considered as an attack on all NATO members. But it is not clear if one of theNato members attacks a third country in this caze Poland being the aggressor, will the other Nato members be mandated to defend Poland.

Back home the US President is also not having the best time politically. Though the former President Trump has been indicted three times and is likely for the fouth, things are not in favour of President Biden politically and for 2024 elections. New information is coming out as the elections are getting closer and embarrassing at times for politicians on both sides.

All these are leading towards the war getting to its climax sooner than later. And that climax is the end of it with a deal taking place between US and Russia. The world has seen recently a meeting  called by the Saudis and attended by many but Russia. President Biden has also given a statement for G20 to be used as a platform to solve the Ukraine Russia crisis and war.

Also the US would like to be more attentive for the chinese finally as the attack on Taiwan is now more probable. The AMERICANS WOULD NOW LIKE TO GET OUT OF THE UKRAINE RUSSIA  turmoil with no real gains coming fast enough. On the other hand the Chinese are proving to be a competent enemy and challenger. IN Europe the Americans were trying to overcome over an already a weakened enemy. IN Asia they have to fight an emerging powerful enemy. This is a big change in terms of perspective and strategy defining.

The next few days and weeks are important. A dramatic turn of events cannot be ruled out. While the chances of a deal coming between Russia and US is possible one cannot rule out something foolish being done especially from Poland. This may disturb the arithmetic being worke dout. The parameters for the deal are being worked out. Russia may be allowed to keep some territories while returning others. Or something similar.

Let us wait and watch with a hope that the war comes to an end peacefully and happily for one and all. The world has to live a much longer time.

Thanks

Best Wishes

Dr Asheesh Shah

Samanvaya

samanvaya.org.in