How prepared are we for catastrophes : looking into the future and what all may still go wrong !


These days we are losing sleep for multiple reasons. The main reason when a person loses sleep is either due to some disease or unknown fears and anxieties. While there are no diseases as such, anxieties and unknown fears could be or let’s admit are the reasons. Therefore we will share our anxieties as it’s important to discuss them all out and try to find solutions. We list those anxieties and fear below in a random order:-

  1. The coronavirus: – A good friend of mine who also knows a bit of astrology and is a good analyst has warned me about the third wave of virus which could be more devastating . He says that and God forbid if that happens, there will be unprecedented deaths and chaos. We don’t want to believe in such stories but the manner in which wave 2 has happened all of a sudden from out of blue, we are now open and willing to hear any damn thing that may have logic or just rumour mongering. For we have entered an era where nothing is impossible these days.from biological wars to psychological and social media led fake news there are killer things happening all around. Its a challenge to keep the mind sane, body fit and doing your work effectively.

Solution: So let’s assume for a moment that coronavirus wave 3 strikes and is more infectious . The purpose of writing this is to find solutions beforehand and not get caught on the wrong foot. To solve the problem we are of the opinion that the government must form a separate task force to check and track for any such possibility. It must also pre[are a comprehensive HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT REPORT (DPR) starting from District levels. It must contain details like number of hospitals needed, Oxygen cylinders, ventilators , ppe kits, ambulances and availability of medicines for worst case scenario. The mayhem and lunacy that we saw last month should not be allowed to be repeated at any cost. Once the DPR is ready, say in a month’s time , Govt must try to look into its feasibility and financial aspect and must see how it can be implemented in a phased and gradual manner. Whether Corona wave 3 strikes or not this will be a permanent asset for the country. The govt can also consider already available resources for the same like anganwadi manpower and other. Detailed information must be sought from the Chief secretaries of each state and they should be made responsible for implementation and execution. .

If we still land up in a similar situation then we would say we must outsource ourselves to some other nation for better governance.

  1. The China Factor: – This is another reason for our sleep loss and we are not joking if you have that wicked smile on your face. We are as serious as one can and the reasons for this China factor is because China is in a sweet spot as of now and if it has nursed the ambition to be number one overruling the United States then we find that it can use and exploit the situation at any time. Same for the United States if it waits perpetually it will be losing the game with China.

A recent article in ORF [1] is warning us about the preparations that are going on in China and all along our borders. No country would like to deploy additional forces and resources and incur heavy expenses for no good reasons that too ignoring the high level military talks between the two nations..

The recent Biden admin decision to probe the origin of Wuhan Virus [2] and also supported by many other researchers is based on some more information coming. Three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.

It is quite possible that to divert attention China might resort to some war tactics with India or could be with Taiwan. And therefore we must be more than prepared for this eventuality that is looking quite probable. We are also of the opinion that this time the length and severity could be higher as compared to the previous one. The time frame for this is from now to December 2021.

Solution: The government must keep a strict vigil and be ready for any eventuality with China or its proxy Pakistan. Both the countries try to use deception in their war strategy and therefore alertness on borders is crucial at all times.

  1. The tricky question of Hindu Muslim united society: . This issue on Muslims in India has been since 17 th century when they lost their power to Marathas even before British. A lot hindu feel we need to take them along as the majority decided to stay back. A good heterogeneous society is good and there is no harm in it.. Many feel that only a few extremes among Muslims need to be kept under check?? But how?? No one knows. We are stuck with our induced sentiments on minorities and liberal labels ??

This is our third cause of worry as we are seeing heightened emotional sentiments in many places especially West Bengal etc. The situation in West Bengal is for real and the danger is it should not be allowed to engulf the entire nation. The government has to be prepared for this eventuality too.

Solution: Government has to be careful in dealing with Bengal. Mamta is an unreliable political entity who might go to any extent. There is a need to have ground inputs from intelligence sources and other resources from the state. The governor has to take note of each and every incident in the state. Movement and migration of people should be watched. The govt must not hesitate to impose a president or call an army in the state if there is a need. No one is bigger than the nation. Any communal flare up must be strictly controlled no matter who is guilty and be brought under control so that it does not affect the mood of the entire nation.

  1. Sudden International developments : Last but not least we are also worried about international developments which could be anything and everything that is possible. A Chinese attack on Taiwan, Israel-Palestine going out of control, A russian missile hitting a wrong target , north Korea going out of mind and control, sudden extreme developments in Pakistan. The problem and issue is that earlier the probability of these events taking place was well below 10% which is now almost 50 % and even higher in some cases. One never knows when the international supply chain line will get fractured and broken. A big Ship in the suez canal blocked international seaways for more than a week, disrupting logistics in many places.

Solution: The govt has to maintain sufficient stock of essential items at all times., Logistic companies and freight movement in the country has to be smoothed with zero delay . Important Highways should have patrolling crew 24×7 hrs along with equipment to deal with any situation. The govt must know that we are living under times of high uncertainty and should be accordingly prepared.

  1. Social media led chaos: the kind of fake news that one sees on social media platforms are at times shocking. The Government has done well to bring the SM companies under tighter regulation. It should also enact laws to punish anyone found indulged in propagating or creating false and fake news/narratives. Social media could easily lead to social and communal tensions. The courts must also be realistic in this respect and must understand that there is a limit to constitutional rights of freedom of expression and privacy matters.

Solution: Tighter regulations and laws to control everything on social media. Nothing is bigger than nation and democracy also means strong laws, regulations and discipline.


The economic repercussions of any of these events happening will be tremendous. Govt must keep track of the economic situation, observe the status of SMEs, MSMEs on a daily/weekly basis , provide stimulus etc.

As they say prevention is better than cure so It will be wise that preemptive actions are planned and taken. India cannot afford to go wrong at this stage and we must remain prepared for all such eventualities.

References :


Dr. Asheesh Shah

Author: Samanvaya

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