Since our last update a lot has changed on the international map. The main spots as of now are Israel-Palestine, Taiwan -China, and US as the overall lead country in world affairs.
The United States is going through a very transitional period and how the international situation unfolds in future will certainly depend on the policy decisions taken by her presently. For these are the decisions that will affect the present and future generations to come and are not ordinary. First and foremost the diplomatic, trade and strategic war between US and China has reached its final stage. It’s a make or break kind of thing and the next 2-3 years will certainly give an idea who is winning and in 5 years the winner will come out for sure. The reason is the competition between the two has reached a stage where the bubble will burst for the weaker of the two. Take the economy of both the countries. While the economy of the US is not in great shape and is well known it will be ignorant and rather foolish to consider the chinese economy in its pink. Therefore the next few years will expose the two .
It is also interesting to note the increased cyber attacks on UNited States facilities, this time public utilities (water) which should come as an eye opener for all of us.
Meanwhile America is withdrawing from Afghanistan after 20 years of war and losing more than 2000 of his army men/women. This will certainly start another round of Pakistani Talibani tactics in the region that will create problems for the region.[1] . Afghanistan cou;d become another hotbed of politics and war between various warring factions involving Russia, US and also China this time which has ex[panded her reach far and beyond and is more aggressive in recent times. India has so far maintained cordial relations with Russia despite her cosy relationship with the US and should continue to do so. Russia has also come closer to China and are acting together against the hegemony of the United States. But these international relationships and diplomacy are always variable of time and circumstances and should not bother us much [2]
Besides, there will be increasing pressure on the US to show her position in Taiwan and the Israel Palestine conflict, both of which are ready to be blown in a full crisis any time. An excellent article of how China will finally take Taiwan is in this article by Patrick Mendis with whom we have interacted as a good friend of India. [3]. The Indian Foreign affairs must utilize the services of his vast experience and knowledge if not so far.
It should be known that on the eve of President Joe Biden’s unofficial delegation arrived in the self-governed nation of Taiwan, in mid-April 2021, the Chinese military began live-fire drills in waters off the island’s southwest coast for the duration of the visit. China also sent a “record number” of twenty-five military aircraft—including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers—over the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on the first day.
The latest event happening is the continuous bombing by Israeli forces in Gaza and Hamas. This has activated the muslim forces arppund the world with mass protests and threats emanating from world capitols especially in London which saw open threats by Muslims to kill Jews. Interestingly, in a tweet by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu , in which he displayed the flags of countries supporting Israel, India’s flag was missing, implying that India has not officially endorsed Israel in this conflict.
China: Meanwhile China is strengthening her position around the world. WE are of the opinion that China will initiate some new tactics in the next few months. It is well known that the dragon always tries to exploit situations out of international affairs. As the US , Europe and the world gets engaged in fighting Coronavirus and the economy China may up the ante and will try to enforce her position. India has to be especially on the vigil as the talks between India and China over Laddakh has reached stagnation and China has clearly told India explicitly not to expect anything more. The two countries are still engaged at multiple points as per some reports [4].
China and India’s bilateral chill is apparent from their leaders’ actions as well. Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke over the phone with leaders from the U.S., Japan, Europe and Russia following the global spread of the coronavirus.
But he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi still have not spoken directly, though Xi sent Modi a message last month expressing his condolences over the surge in COVID-19 cases in India.
Pakistan is going through a delicate phase. But the recent visit of Imran Khan to Saudi Arabia is of interest which is said to be a new beginning after the coldness displayed by the two in the last few years. This should be interesting and India has to keep its watch over such developments.
Conclusion:
The world is going through a very highly turbulent phase. India will have to be careful and increase the vigil on the borders. WE expect the next few months to be volatile in the international domain. India is facing a tough covid situation and any untoward situation on the border will only increase the pressure on the Modi government. However it is well known that by keeping forces active and vigilant enemy nations are little deterred to take actions. Countries are caught off guard only when they show complacency. India cannot show the same at this stage by no means. References:
- https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/withdrawal-of-us-forces-afghanistan-nato-9-11-attacks-7280620/
- https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-and-the-great-power-triangle-of-russia-china-and-us-7270827/
- https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/chinas-art-of-war-in-taiwan
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/India-China-border-standoff-shows-no-sign-of-easing-1-year-on
Asheesh Shah
Samanvaya.
